The India Energy Security Scenarios, 2047

The IESS, 2047 is housed in the Energy and Research Division of
the Planning Commission; and has been developed as an energy scenario
building tool. The guiding ambition of this is to develop energy
pathways leading up to the year 2047, exploring a range of potential
future energy scenarios for India, across energy supply sectors such as
renewable energy, oil, gas, coal, and nuclear, and energy demand
sectors such as transport, industry, agriculture, cooking, lighting and
appliances, etc. The outcomes of this model also evaluate carbon
dioxide emissions, and land-use implications for different energy

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Energy Security

The guiding principle
of the India Energy Security Scenarios, 2047 (IESS, 2047) is energy
security, viewed as reduced import dependency for India in the years
between now and 2047. The IESS, 2047 generates information as to what
percentage of the total primary energy supply (as per the pathway
chosen by the user), will be met by imports.  Hence, while the tool
segregates the demand for energy by sectors, and the supply numbers by
sources, it also generates energy import numbers by source, and
aggregates the same to offer total energy imports under different
scenarios.  As the scenarios generated for different sectors are linear
(either rising or falling, as the case may be), the graphic
representation of the data sets is simple and easily understandable
even by non-energy experts. A detailed examination of the tool will
reveal how changes in choices of energy demand and supply, yielding
different levels of energy import, can help a planner to decide the
sector(s), in which interventions can be more effective to meet the
desired policy objectives.  Since the tool also offers fuel-wise data
(some consuming sectors use specific fuels), it is also possible to see
which demand sectors should be influenced through suitable policy
measures, to curb consumption of the imported fuels.  Hence, it is a
handy tool to use for those interested in understanding the energy
security dimensions of the country.
How to generate import dependency data ?
Once the user chooses his pathway
, he/she can witness the effect of the same on the percentage import
dependence of the country in the third graph on the homepage of the
webtool, both in terms of total import dependence and segregation by
fuel imports.
C:UsersAsthaDesktopNew for websiteScreenshot how toPicture4.png

The user can also go to the energy security section of the
webtool to delve deeper into the energy security implications of his
chosen pathway. The IESS, 2047, enables the user to see the impact his
choices make on the percentage of fossil fuel imported in the country,
the subsequent impact on India’s import bill and a comparison in terms
of absolute numbers between India’s domestic and imported fuel
C:UsersAsthaDesktopNew for websiteScreenshot how toPicture9.png

How to use the Import dependency function ?
Having seen how the IESS, 2047 works in providing
import related information, we need to understand the algorithm in the
Calculator. Once the user has created the demand for energy (specified
fuels and electricity) by opting different choices in the demand
sectors, he is then required to choose the supply pathways. Here, the
role of energy balancing comes in (see the write-up on Balancing). The
volume of fossil fuel imports is dependent on the levels of production
of domestic sources of energy and electricity, compared to demand. The
algorithm in the IESS, 2047 automatically does the gap filling by
imports. Hence, the user has to calibrate either the demand (by
lowering the demand of the sector dependent on imported fuel – through
technology/behaviour change), or ramp up doemstic production. He could
also shift the supply mix – produce more electricity from RE rather than
fossil fuels. Hence, the dynamic results/impact of user choices,
depicted on the import dependency graphs are very handy in guiding the
user to influence his energy pathway to improve import dependency
‘Pop up’ on over generation/exports
If the user has inadvertantly/consciously opted for
higher levels of energy supply (as compared to the demand), the
Calculator will generate the surplus energy volume and indicate the same
on the screen in the webtool. In this case, there might be a situation
of India importing fuel, and also exporting it either as primary
energy (coal or gas etc) or  electricity at the same time. The
calculator does not predict the user preference and adjust the export of
energy with imports on its own. It will, however, let the user know of
this anomalous situation, and expect a calibration of the energy
pathway choices to minimise generation of electricty, or change the
fuel mix in favour of domestic sources (ramp up domestic production of
fossil fuels/RE). He could also reduce demand in those sectors which
are dependent on imported fuels. The Sankeye is the best place to view
the above situation, as it also gives the exact numbers both on the
demand and supply sides, for easy calibration. Hence, in the energy
security fearure of the IESS, 2047 the user may have to interpret the
import dependence graph in the light of the export situation which may
have developed simultaneously. It may, however, be added that as the
south Asian electricity grid matures, there may be a situation of India
having a large electricity export market, or even using
inter-connectors to balance the grid, as is seen in Europe.
What value does this feature add ?
As mentioned earlier, the Tool provides energy
consumption data by fuel and electricity. The user gets to choose how is
the electricity supplied – which source. Therefore, the IESS, 2047 is
unique in providing information on energy security in the overall
context of all supply sources. In India, while we do get individual
fuel wise import dependence data, but seldom on an overall basis. This
Tool informs the user of the likely contribution of different fuels in
the overall imports – one can see the role of coal, petroleum and gas
individually, as well as on the overall basis. Secondly, the future
scenarios of energy import bill is another value – add of this Tool,
which is derived using IEA estimates of future prices (until 2035 and
extrapolated thereafter). This graphic representation of individual fuel
import bill as well as the total bill, also helps one to compare the
price trade-off of different fuels (crude has larger share of import
bill than its primary energy supply). The varying prices of fuels in
the long term as per the estimates, (gas is expected by some to get
cheaper as compared to oil) helps the user to see which fuel is likely
to be more onerous on the country’s FE bill. Thirdly, the Tool can also
inform the user of the impact of demand choices on the energy
security. Hence, for the first time for India, we can evaluate the
impact of shifts in passenger/freight transport pattern or in cooking
sectors, on energy import bill. Finally, this feature juxtaposes energy
efficiency and renewable energy on one framework, for the user to
evaluate the impact of policies on the former (the demand side choices
are more around technology), vis-à-vis RE (on the Supply side) on
import dependency. 

Finally, it may be added that the IESS, 2047 is an integrated
exercise between energy demand and supply sectors on one hand, and
energy security, balancing, energy flows, emissions, land etc on the
other. The Calcualtor has been developed to offer user-friendly
interface on all the above accounts by generating graphs, which change
dynamically as the user changes his choices. As India has large import
dependence in the energy sector, it calls for concerted action not
merely on supply side, but equally on demand side. The Example Pathways feature better informs the user of the standalone impact of interventions on the demand or supply side. 

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