|out of 400||2011||2012||2013|
Last year  there was a pattern change , no one knew what could be the ideal score , as no data was available for previous year which could indicate what cutoff to expect . This lack of data due to sudden pattern change triggered a response in the students , they attempted more and also paper was balanced and on the easier side . After the paper there was panic that cutoff could even reach 140 as paper was easy and general attempt was more . Even though of this inflated attempts by the students Cutoff was 107.34 , many who were scared and attempted more couldn’t even touch 54 effective Correct Questions . The year of inflation  settles one argument that cutoff remains around 50-60% [ 2015 – 107.34 , 2014 – 205 , 2013- 241 , 2012-209 , 2011-198 . ]
Anyone who took All these papers will tell you that , 2011 was tough so cutoff was 198 , again 2012 was tough so cutoff 209 , But 2013 was easy and the cutoff shot to 241 , aspirants thought cutoff next year will be 250+ , Next year again paper was tough and cutoff dropped to 205[ many who went for the 250 were snowballed , couldn’t even score 205 . Next year was 2015 , pattern change , again the panic of not knowing what could be the cutoff acted as a fuel to the fire of moderate to easy questions , cutoff soared 107.34 .
The aspirants appearing in 2016 prelims knew that last years paper was easy then also the cutoff touched only 107.34 and not 120s and 130s predicted by many . Again some sense of settlement and a parameter was set .
What happened in prelims 2015 ?
Paper was unbalanced , skewed towards current affair . The real serious aspirants spends a large chunk of their preparation time on History , Geography , Economy and Polity[ Which will help in Their mains answer writing no doubt ] . This year these core subjects alone could not help the aspirant to sail though . So obviously cutoff will be less , whenever the question is a bit tough cutoff drops , look at 2013 and 2014 cutoff dropped 36 marks
The comment section is open to your analysis . Let the world know what do you think will be the cutoff and why ?
Appearing in UPSC 2017 Without Coaching following article may help